August 19,2019 Open Forum

Japan-US-India Defense Cooperation: Anticipating the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Other triangles keep drawing greater attention, but the US-Japan-India triangle has become the foundation of what is envisioned as the 21st century security framework involving the United States in the Indo-Pacific. As seen from Japan, this security triangle is acquiring an increasing role in regional strategic thinking as a result of at least three developments: 1) the intensification of the..

Nagao Satoru*
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Asianism , free and open Indo-Pacific , Jammu and Kashmir , Ladakh , the Quad , Trans-Pacific Partnership , US-China trade war
August 13,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2019)

All roads ran through Washington in the late spring and early summer of 2019, even as Abe strove for a more autonomous role through hosting the G20, improving relations with China, and aggressively targeting South Korea. Intense media coverage ranged from the Abe-Trump relationship and Trump’s pressure tactics, the Trump-Kim relationship and diplomatic showmanship, the Trump-Xi Jinpin..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Asianism , free and open Indo-Pacific , G20 , Huawei , Reiwa , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war
July 29,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (July 2019)

Russian authors continued to show a preference for big questions. What is the character of the transformation under way in Northeast Asia? How has history been altered by developments in Sino-Soviet relations worthy of further investigation? Is an Indo-Russian alliance within reach with transformative impact on the regional order? Is conflict between Russia and China just the imagination of..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Great Eurasian Partnership , Osaka Summit , Silk Road Economic Belt , Trump-Kim summit , Yellow Umbrella Movement
July 29,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (July 2019)

In the summer of 2019, South Korean media discussed the country’s relations with China, the United States, North Korea, and Japan. Specifically, they covered: (1) the Xi-Kim summit; (2) the G20 summit in Osaka, with three sub-topics: Seoul’s diplomatic leverage, the US-China trade war, and Abe’s decision to forego a bilateral summit with Moon⁠; (3) the Trump-Kim meeting i..

Editorial Staff
G20 , GSOMIA , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , US-ROK alliance , Xi-Kim summit
July 29,2019 Open Forum

Deciphering China’s Intentions: What Can Open Sources Tell Us?

Over the past several years, bold assertions about China’s long-range strategic goals have become common in the US public discourse. In 2015, Michael Pillsbury published his influential volume The Hundred-Year Marathon, which purported to disclose China’s “frightening plans” to overtake the United States as the world’s leading power by 2049 and rewrite the rules..

Joel Wuthnow
"Belt and Road" Initiative , 19th Party Congress , Chinese Communist Party , Huawei , Taiwan , Xi Jinping Thought , Xinjiang , ZTE
July 29,2019 Open Forum

Washington Insights, Vol. 7, No. 4

Donald Trump keeps seizing the initiative, overshadowing Abe Shinzo at the G20 meetings, changing the narrative at will in diplomacy with Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un, and, on every occasion, relegating human rights and democratization to the sidelines. Just as he sets the agenda on the world stage, he drives the discussion at DC think tanks. Distracting from warnings of a showdown between Trum..

Editorial Staff
“small deal” , 5G , G20 , Huawei , KORUS FTA , Quad , THAAD , US-China trade war
July 16,2019 Open Forum

The Debate over US Policy toward China Heats Up: Doves, Hawks, Superhawks, and the Viability of the Think Tank Middle Ground

The aim of this synopsis is to clarify the debate that has erupted in the early summer of 2019, to differentiate the main schools of thought, to put the debate in historical perspective, and to suggest some tests that lie ahead. On the one hand, any such debate at this juncture has to be a response to Donald Trump’s China policy. On the other, it has unfolded as something more: An excha..

Gilbert Rozman
Cold War , Donald Trump , Doves , Hawks , Red China , Superhawks , Xi Jinping
July 03,2019 National Commentaries

A US Perspective

It is easy to assume that rising tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic of China will benefit Taiwan. As everyone knows, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” But this assumption reveals a superficial understanding of Taiwan’s role in the triangular relationship among Beijing, Washington, and Taipei. In fact, a different aphorism may capture T..

Shelley Rigger
Donald Trump , G20 , GCTF , National Defense Authorization Act , TPP , Tsai Ing-wen , Xi Jinping
July 03,2019 National Commentaries

A Japanese Perspective

In 2019 China intensified its offensive against Taiwan. At the same time as it strove to penetrate the Taiwanese society with policies of favoritism based on “31 measures” of better opportunities for businesses and individuals in the PRC. It also stepped up its political and military pressure through Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech to Taiwan compatriots and PLA fighte..

Kawashima Shin*
"Belt and Road" Initiative , 1992 Consensus , free and open Indo-Pacific , One China policy , TPP
July 03,2019 National Commentaries

A Taiwanese Perspective

In contrast to the relatively amicable Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) era (2008-16), cross-strait relations have chilled considerably since Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) came to power in Taiwan in 2016. Despite Tsai’s vow to maintain the status quo, China has criticized her for failing to accept the so-called 1992 Consensus – an agreement to disagree reached between the t..

Vincent Wei-cheng Wang
1992 Consensus , Democratic Progressive Party , One China policy , RTX6RUB6 (layout (comp)) , Tsai Ing-wen , Xi Jinping