September 15,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Setting aside the ongoing debate in The Asan Forum and other platforms about the extent and durability of the Sino-Russian alignment, it is hard to gainsay that Central Asia is the region where China and Russia cooperate most. The Soviet Union’s demise removed a major barrier against non-Russian influence in Central Asia. Even so, rather than become a region of rivalry between a rising..

Richard Weitz
"Belt and Road" Initiative , international terrorism , Islamic State , natural resources , social revolutions
September 15,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

The strategic partnership of Russia and China (as people like to call this relationship, eschewing the word “alliance”) is one of the key factors shaping all of world politics. However, this partnership is still quite fleeting and weakly grounded, inasmuch as it is based on the personal relationship of the two countries’ leaders and their similar views on US global hegemony,..

Ivan Zuenko
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Russian Far East , strategic partnership , Trans-pamir alliance
September 05,2017 National Commentaries

A US Perspective

Polarization is a state of international relations familiar from the Cold War era. Even through there was an early non-aligned movement and some states insisted on their strategic autonomy, the process of polarization continued. China spent almost a decade denouncing both camps before it reversed its position and joined one of them. Is polarization reviving some three decades after the end of..

Gilbert Rozman
ARF , Donald Trump , THAAD , TPP
September 05,2017 National Commentaries

A Japanese Perspective

With no end in sight for North Korea to back down from its hardline military stance, and continued worries about Chinese aggression in the region, there is no shortage of concerns that countries across the Asia-Pacific share. The challenge, however, is not identifying the common threats facing the world’s most populous region, or even coming up with potential solutions that could ensure..

Shihoko Goto
Abe Shinzo , AIIB , Pax Americana , TPP
September 05,2017 National Commentaries

A Southeast Asian Perspective

The annual ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) and the related ASEAN-plus meetings—a series of ASEAN-led forums involving foreign ministers from 27 nations across the Indo-Pacific—were held from August 2-8, 2017 in Manila, the capital of Philippines which holds the rotating chairmanship of the 10-member grouping. This year’s meetings marked the grouping’s 50th anniversary. They ..

Cheng-Chwee Kuik
ARF , ASEAN Way , BRI , concentric multilateralism , EAS , hedging , Nine-dash line , North Natuna Sea , South China Sea
August 30,2017 Open Forum

Giving a New Jolt to Strategic Triangle Analysis

In 2017, the US response to Sino-Russian relations has again risen to center stage. Donald Trump has sought to tilt US policy toward Russia, while at times warning strongly against China. In contrast, Congress and many alarmed by the way Russia interfered in the US presidential elections have sought to harden policy against it, while in some cases prioritizing more incentives for China to do ..

Gilbert Rozman
alliance building , axis of convenience , Donald Trump , national identities , Strategic Triangle , Vladmir Putin , Xi Jinping
August 30,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2017)

Trump’s shadow hung heavily over summer developments in East Asia, as covered in Japan’s media. There was talk of US isolation, retreat in leadership, and failure in managing North Korea. Yomiuri on July 31 cited press accounts abroad without any heartening news for the Japanese public; explanations ranged beyond Trump to the broader US society—inequality, cultural despondency,..

Editorial Staff
ARF , comfort women , Donald Trump , history war , Kono Taro , Senkaku Islands , South China Sea
August 29,2017 Special Forum

Introduction

Over the summer of 2017, all eyes have been on the Northern Tier of Asia: North Korean relations with the United States, Sino-US relations and the Korean Peninsula, US-ROK relations, and Japan as a factor in these cases with Russia occasionally entering the picture. The Trump effect further south in Asia has drawn much less attention. In this collection of four articles, we cross Asia’s..

Editorial Staff
BOR , BRI , Donald Trump , freedom of navigation , Malabar naval exercise , South China Sea , TPP
August 29,2017 Special Forum

Australia

Australia is perhaps the ideal incubator for ideas, invectives, and occasionally, idiocies regarding a foreign policy challenge facing many if not most states today—how to navigate the disruptive transition occasioned by America’s decline and China’s rise. Relatively secure in its geographic isolation, with insufficient material capabilities either to look after itself or tip th..

Darren J. Lim
1951 ANZUS Treaty , Donald Trump , FONOPs , Malcolm Turnbull , OBOR , Shangri-La Dialogue , TPP-11