April 22,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (April 2019)

In early spring Japanese media noted the upcoming transition to the Reiwa era on May 1, the plan for Donald Trump to come in late May for a state visit and the first official meeting of a foreign leader with the new emperor, and hoopla over the G20 summit in Osaka a month later. In the distance loomed the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. While the expectations for an Abe-Putin meeting in the shadows o..

Editorial Staff
2020 Tokyo Olympics , comfort women , conscripted labor , Dokdo/Takeshima , shinilpa , US-China trade war
April 22,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: China (April 2019)

In early 2019, Chinese experts assessed Chinese–Korean economic relations, China’s relationship with South Korea, and the potential for extending the Belt and Road Initiative to Northeast Asia. They also evaluated the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, long-term shifts in Sino–US relations and the evolution of the US–Japan alliance under the Trump administration..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , CPTPP , Indo-Pacific strategy , New Southern Policy , Six-Party Talks , THAAD
April 18,2019 Open Forum

Trump and Asia: Continuity, Change, and Disruption

The election of Donald J. Trump as president of the United States in 2016 sparked intense anxiety about the future of American leadership in Asia and the world. The new president’s attacks on alliances, trade, and global institutions; his praise of erstwhile adversaries such as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un; his adoption of the pre-war isolationist “America First” label;..

Michael J. Green
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , Five Eyes , free and open Indo-Pacific , Quad , THAAD , TPP
April 15,2019 Open Forum

Explaining South Korea’s Sharp Shift in 2018 toward Japan

Japan-ROK relations stand at a great crossroads. What brought about this big test was the ruling issued in October 2018 by the South Korean Supreme Court on conscripted labor or, more precisely, the judgment concerning Korean wartime workers.1 With this, the court has recognized the right of these workers to claim compensation from Japanese firms, arousing an outraged response from the Japanes..

Kimura Kan*
comfort women , conscripted labor , Dokdo/Takeshima , Kono Declaration , Rising Sun flag dispute , Yasukuni Shrine
April 12,2019 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Russia’s ability to become an independent, geopolitical center in Eurasia is closely tied to the position of other countries and geopolitical tendencies in the region. The idea of a special role for Eurasia in world economics and politics has long been discussed by various theoreticians, among them Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman, who considered control over Eurasia the key to ..

Alexander Lukin
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Eurasian Economic Union , Greater Eurasian Partnership , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Silk Road Economic Belt
April 12,2019 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

Alexander Lukin, in his Positive Scenario 1, writes that “the course to transform Russia into an independent Eurasian center of power and world influence has today become the official policy of the Kremlin and the main direction of thought of the majority of Russian experts on foreign policy strategy.” In my first essay I took quite a broad approach and now have little to add, whil..

Jeff Schubert
"Belt and Road" Initiative , 5G , Shanghai Cooperation Organization , Silk Road Economic Belt , UAVs
April 02,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Korea (March 2019)

Second US-DPRK Summit (Feb. 27-28)US President Donald Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un again on February 27-28 in Vietnam, following their first historic summit in Singapore last year. Given that the first meeting fell short of expectations, ending with an ambiguous joint statement that did not specify the definition of denuclearization or how to achieve it, the stakes wer..

Kim Kimberly
Foal Eagle , Hanoi summit , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Key Resolve , Mount Geumgang , Panmunjom Declaration , Pyongyang summit , Yongbyon
March 28,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (March 2019)

Three themes centered on East Asia drew considerable attention in Russia in the latter half of the winter of 2019: China, North Korea, and Eurasia. On China, Russia’s ambassador continued to tout the best relations ever, offering no hint of challenges, while others assessed whether, in light of troubled Sino-US relations, China now needs Russia enough to forge a relationship of equals ..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
BRI , Eurasianism , free and open Indo-Pacific , Hanoi summit , SREB , turn to the East
March 19,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (February 2019)

The winter brought disappointing news regarding Japanese foreign policy on many fronts, but at least the worst-case scenario at the Trump-Kim Hanoi summit was avoided. The hopes for a breakthrough with Russia with accelerated diplomacy were dashed in three high-level meetings in January and February. The momentum built with the October Abe-Xi summit was scarcely sustained amidst nervousness..

Editorial Staff
Abe-Xi Summit , BRI , Cold War , free and open Indo-Pacific , Hanoi summit
March 01,2019 National Commentaries

A View from the United States

A powerful, animating ego is a prerequisite to success among national politicians, but US President Donald Trump takes self-confidence—and the blinders that come with it—to unprecedented heights. Characteristic of his drive and ambition is his claim at the Republican National Convention, after securing the party’s nomination to be its 2016 presidential candidate: “Nobody knows..

Brad Glosserman
FFVD , Hanoi summit , Nobel Peace Prize , Singapore Summit , Six-Party Talks , Thae Yong-ho