Jan 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

2019, which began with high hopes for progress in nuclear talks, is coming to an end amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Contrary to expectations, there was no “Christmas surprise” from North Korea. However, North Korea’s state-run media reported on December 22 that Chairman Kim held an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission […]

Jina Kim

ICBM , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance , wartime operational control , Worker’s Party

Dec 09,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (November 2019)

Through the fall, Seoul’s relationship with Tokyo has been at its nadir, but relations with both Pyongyang and Washington have also been deeply troubled. While conservative and progressive articles and commentators have differed in their recommendations, neither found much basis for hope. Under pressure, concessions have been made and perceived as responses to desperation. Fear […]

Kim Kimberly

CVID , GSOMIA , Mount Geumgang , Pyongyang Declaration , Special Measures Agreement , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance

Nov 04,2019 Special Forum

Introduction

The breakdown in ROK-Japan relations in the second half of 2019 has sent shock waves across some countries and caused others to salivate about how their aspirations might be realized. At a time of uncertainty about security, economics, and even the nature of the regional order, the possibilities are many for speculation about how the […]

Gilbert Rozman

"Belt and Road" Initiative , 1965 Basic Treaty , comfort women , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , Korea Fatigue , Korean War , US-ROK alliance

Oct 28,2019 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Recently, North Korea broke off working-level nuclear talks with the United States hours after they began in Stockholm.1 Kim Myong-gil, the chief North Korean negotiator, placed the blame entirely on American officials for coming “empty-handed.”2 Observers may be quick to conclude that this is a diplomatic déjà vu in the making: North Korea manufactures a […]

Brian Kim

GSOMIA , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Korean War , Mount Kumkang , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance

Oct 28,2019 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

The working-level talks between the US and North Korea in Stockholm on October 4 and 5 fell apart after just one day. It was anticipated that the meeting would end without any significant result for two reasons. First, North Korea committed to the meeting only when Chairman Kim, invited to an unscheduled meeting with President […]

Jina Kim

Hanoi summit , Korean War , New Year’s Address , Non-proliferation treaty , US-ROK alliance

Oct 18,2019 Open Forum

Washington Insights, Vol. 7, No. 5

No topic stirred as much interest in DC think tanks as the US-Japan-South Korean triangle. In the background loomed North Korea, leading to overlapping interest in the Sino-North Korean-US triangle. The driving force remained Donald Trump, keeping on edge US relations with each of the other three countries. Naturally, the latter triangle was seen also […]

Editorial Staff

Act East Policy , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , New Southern Policy , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , US-ROK alliance

Oct 16,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (October 2019)

Japanese foreign policy drew increased criticism in the summer of 2019. On the left, there were harsh critiques of Abe’s diplomatic failures with Russia and North Korea (both putting Japan at increased risk), the breakdown of relations with South Korea, and the troubled state of the Japan-US relationship (Tokyo Shimbun, August 5). On the right, […]

Editorial Staff

"Belt and Road" Initiative , "Hate Korea” , GSOMIA , INF Treaty , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , US-ROK alliance

Oct 07,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (September 2019)

August saw a series of missile provocations from North Korea in the midst of growing tension between South Korea and Japan; the hostility against one another reached its peak as Seoul eventually announced its decision to end a military intelligence-sharing agreement, the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), with Tokyo and later filed a […]

Kim Kimberly

GSOMIA , John Bolton , peace economy , Trump-Kim summit , UN General Assembly , US-China trade war , US-ROK alliance

Jul 29,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (July 2019)

In the summer of 2019, South Korean media discussed the country’s relations with China, the United States, North Korea, and Japan. Specifically, they covered: (1) the Xi-Kim summit; (2) the G20 summit in Osaka, with three sub-topics: Seoul’s diplomatic leverage, the US-China trade war, and Abe’s decision to forego a bilateral summit with Moon⁠; (3) […]

Editorial Staff

G20 , GSOMIA , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , US-ROK alliance , Xi-Kim summit

May 15,2019 Open Forum

Washington Insights, Vol. 7, No. 2

Exchanges in DC are increasingly torn between a focus on bilateral relations—in particular, US relations with China, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan—or on trilateral relations. If the Sino-US relationship has enough heft to galvanize bilateral attention, the other pairings keep becoming enmeshed in triangular analysis. This report on recent seminars and presentations in DC […]

Editorial Staff

comfort women , Hanoi summit , Singapore Summit , trilateralism , US-Japan alliance , US-ROK alliance