Dec 28,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

The long-awaited December 15-16 Yamaguchi-Tokyo summit appears to have been a failure, which masqueraded as a step forward. That is the conclusion many sources in Japan have drawn, and the most reasonable finding unless one deduces from the remarks of Abe Shinzo and Vladimir Putin that in their 95-minute tete-a-tete with only interpreters present a […]

Gilbert Rozman

1956 Joint Declaration , Abe Shinzo , Eastern Economic Forum , energy , G7 , Hikiwake , Kuril Islands , Northern Territories , Peace Treaty , Putin

Dec 28,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Was President Putin’s visit on December 15-16 a success or a failure? Media coverage seems to have been almost unanimous in Japan and Russia. In Japan, a general sense of disappointment and many analytical articles concluded that the visit proved to be a failure for Prime Minister Abe. In Russia, conversely, a general sense prevailed […]

Kazuhiko Togo

1855 treaty , 1956 Joint Declaration , Abe Shinzo , APEC , Kuril Islands , Northern Territories , Peace Treaty , Putin , Territorial Disputes , Trump administration

Dec 13,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (November)

Two themes dominated the news in November: the “shock” of the election of Donald Trump, which is covered separately in a Special Forum article, and the “anticipation” of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan on December 15. Already in the first part of the fall there was a sharp increase in Japanese articles on Japan-Russia relations, […]

Editorial Staff

AIIB , ASEAN , comfort women , East China Sea , energy , G20 , GSOMIA , Hikiwake , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Northern Territories

Nov 24,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (November 2016)

Noteworthy in the fall of 2016 has been the increase in articles about the Russo-Japanese relationship. They accompanied the Eastern Economic Forum meeting of Putin and Abe and anticipated the planned visit of Putin to Yamaguchi in December. Further attention was also given to Sino-Russian relations, especially as questions kept being raised about how linking […]

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)

Crimea , Eurasian Economic Commission , Eurasian Economic Union , European Union , G7 , Kuril Islands , NATO , Northern Territories , Russian Far East , Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Oct 26,2016 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Japan-Russia relations started gaining momentum from the beginning of 2016, and even for optimistic observers of that relationship, the tempo of activation that we see now is amazing. It all started in 2012 when Putin, running to become president again in March, held a press conference just a few days before the election, and said […]

Kazuhiko Togo

1956 Joint Declaration , Crimea , Eastern Economic Forum , four islands in a batch , Hikiwake , Kawana proposal , Putin , Shinzo Abe , Sochi summit , two plus alpha

Oct 18,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (October 2016)

How did Abe’s meeting with Putin in Vladivostok contribute to a breakthrough in relations? How are growing tensions over the South China Sea (and divisiveness within ASEAN) and the North Korean nuclear threat impacting Japan? How are relations with South Korea seen now that payment to the “comfort women” fund has been authorized? In the […]

Editorial Staff

ASEAN , comfort women , G20 , rebalance , SCO , Sino-Russian rapprochement , South China Sea , THAAD

Aug 12,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2016)

In late spring and early summer, the focus of the Japanese media shifted from the G7 and Obama’s visit to Hiroshima to the South China Sea ruling and China’s angry response, followed by intensified pressure on ASEAN. The overall impact was for Japan to strengthen relations with the United States (despite nervousness about Trump) and […]

Editorial Staff

comfort women , Donald Trump , EEU-ASEAN , G7 Summit , Hashimoto-Yeltsin plan , Senkaku Islands , South China Sea , Takeshima , THAAD

Jun 07,2016 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (June 2016)

Kawakami Takashi in the March Kaigai Jijo assessed the Obama presidency, faulting him for high-sounding language on a non-nuclear world while doing nothing to stop North Korea from possessing nuclear weapons. He calls this “leading from behind” or “talk without action,” creating a vacuum by thinking that the United States is no longer the world […]

Editorial Staff

G7 , GSOMIA , Ise-Shima summit , Japanese-Russian relations , Minsk Accord , Northern Territories , Nuclear threat

Apr 29,2016 Special Forum

The Japan-US-Russia Triangle in 2016

The Washington-Tokyo-Moscow triangle has intermittently drawn attention since the 1950s for its potential to shift Japan’s foreign policy and alter the course of great power balancing. Until the late 1970s, Tokyo’s soft stance—a territorial deal in return for an autonomous foreign policy or an energy program boosting the Russian economy—was of prime concern, although it […]

Gilbert Rozman

2 + alpha , Abe-Putin courtship , G-7 sanctions , Hikiwake , Northern Territories , Ukraine

Apr 29,2016 Special Forum

Synopsis of the German Marshall Fund’s Japan Trilateral Forum, March 1-2, 2016

Why is it important to forge a global triangular framework under the auspices of Washington, Tokyo, and Brussels? Triangularity was assumed to exist during the Cold War, but Japanese horizons remained seriously limited and Europeans relied heavily on US power in East Asia. A triangle of this sort was posited as the emerging structure in […]

Editorial Staff

AIIB , Asianism , Populism , Post-modern Syndrome , Refugee crisis