December 30,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

In his own words, President Moon Jae-in’s plan “is to make enough progress by the year's end so the [peace] process cannot be reversed,” such that “there can never be another war on the Korean Peninsula.”1 In reality, of course, peace is never completely irreversible. More reasonably, what Moon likely desires is to create such momentum behind engagement with Nor..

Kathryn Botto
Donald Trump , Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Pyongyang summit , Singapore Summit
December 30,2018 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Months have passed since the Pyongyang summit—and hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough remain illusory. For a brief moment, the stalled diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang appeared to recover; yet no date has been fixed for a second Trump-Kim summit and the newly-appointed US envoy Stephen Biegun has yet to set foot in North Korea. The deadlock is unsurprising given the profound diff..

Eun A Jo
Donald Trump , Kim Jong-un , Moon Jae-in , Moonshine Policy , Pyongyang summit , Singapore Summit
December 27,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (December 2018)

The last part of 2018 was marked by the hopeful aftermath of the Abe-Xi summit and the new push by Abe and Putin to resolve the long-lingering dispute between Tokyo and Moscow. These themes are covered separately in an Open Forum article. Below, attention is directed at the less positive coverage of Japan’s relations with North and South Korea and at the efforts by Abe to bring to fru..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , APEC , East Asia Summit , free and open Indo-Pacific , Korea boom , Tokyo Strategy 2018
December 21,2018 National Commentaries

A Japanese Perspective

What Do the Midterm Elections Mean for Trump's East Asia Policies?The 2018 midterm elections have revealed that President Trump has only Plan A for his reelection campaign in 2020. Trump will seek to go back to the White House by appealing solely to his core support base. This approach will mostly dictate Trump’s approach to East Asia in the next two years.  The president’s par..

Akimoto Satohiro
America First , free and open Indo-Pacific , Meng Wanzhou , Singapore Summit
December 20,2018 Special Forum

Introduction

The history of East Asian democratization has been cast in terms of negative Confucian heritage, postwar US encouragement to allies, and the positive spillover of economic “miracles.” Focused on national identities distinct from Confucian heritage and nuanced in coverage of the impact of the United States, the following four articles direct attention at forces, positive and negati..

Gilbert Rozman
Constitutionalism , democratization , imperialism , nationalism
December 20,2018 Special Forum

China’s Political Trajectory and Foreign Relations under the Influence of National Identity

Since Xi Jinping formally ascended to power in 2013, China has been flaunting its superior “China Model” to the rest of the world more actively than ever before. The official media have published numerous articles with such eye-catching titles as “Establishing the Chinese Coordinates for Democratic Politics,”1 “China Is the Real Biggest Democratic Country in the W..

Yinan He
"Belt and Road" Initiative , anti-Manchuism , Charm offensive , China Model , hard authoritarianism , Hate America Campaign
December 20,2018 Special Forum

Democracy is More than a Political System: Lessons from South Korea’s Democratic Transformation

An assessment of South Korea’s democratization requires acknowledging juxtaposing patterns. On the one hand, the shadow of an authoritarian, Cold War state hangs over the country’s politics. State-society relations constructed under deeply illiberal circumstances did not disappear with the transition to democracy. On the other hand, developments in 2016-17 proved that South Korea&r..

Erik Mobrand
April Revolution , Candlelight Movement , Conservative democratization , De-authoritarianization , Kwangju Uprising , National Security Law
December 20,2018 Special Forum

National Identity and Democracy: Lessons from the Case of Japan

The relationship between national identity and democracy is a complicated one. National identity provides a foundation for democratic politics in at least two senses. First, the spread of national identity can prepare the ground for democracy in the sense that nationalism breaks the elite’s monopoly on politics and transforms the masses into participants in the political process. Nation..

Tadashi Anno
Asianism , Imperial restoration , Meiji Constitution , peace diplomacy , Taisho democracy
December 20,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: China (December 2018)

In late 2018, Chinese experts assessed China’s relations with India and India’s maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean under the Modi administration. They examined the revival of the quadrilateral security dialogue between the United States, South Korea, India, and Japan, evaluated the impact of South Korean citizens’ views toward the United States and China on South Korea&rs..

Danielle F. S. Cohen (assisted by Dong Jiaxin)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , America First , free and open Indo-Pacific , Quadrilateral Security Dialogue , THAAD
December 20,2018 Open Forum

Thirty Years of Japan’s Diplomacy toward the Korean Peninsula

When considering Japan’s politics and diplomacy toward North Korea over the thirty years from the second half of the 1980s four important developments warrant attention: 1) Nakasone’s approach during the Cold War; 2) Kanemaru’s 1990 visit to the North in an effort to normalize relations; 3) Japan’s response and domestic politics reacting to the first nuclear crisis of ..

Miyagi Taizo
Cold War , Korean War , North Korean nuclear crisis , North-South Cross-recognition