September 15,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Setting aside the ongoing debate in The Asan Forum and other platforms about the extent and durability of the Sino-Russian alignment, it is hard to gainsay that Central Asia is the region where China and Russia cooperate most. The Soviet Union’s demise removed a major barrier against non-Russian influence in Central Asia. Even so, rather than become a region of rivalry between a rising..

Richard Weitz
"Belt and Road" Initiative , international terrorism , Islamic State , natural resources , social revolutions
September 15,2017 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

The strategic partnership of Russia and China (as people like to call this relationship, eschewing the word “alliance”) is one of the key factors shaping all of world politics. However, this partnership is still quite fleeting and weakly grounded, inasmuch as it is based on the personal relationship of the two countries’ leaders and their similar views on US global hegemony,..

Ivan Zuenko
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Russian Far East , strategic partnership , Trans-pamir alliance
September 05,2017 National Commentaries

A US Perspective

Polarization is a state of international relations familiar from the Cold War era. Even through there was an early non-aligned movement and some states insisted on their strategic autonomy, the process of polarization continued. China spent almost a decade denouncing both camps before it reversed its position and joined one of them. Is polarization reviving some three decades after the end of..

Gilbert Rozman
ARF , Donald Trump , THAAD , TPP
August 30,2017 Open Forum

Giving a New Jolt to Strategic Triangle Analysis

In 2017, the US response to Sino-Russian relations has again risen to center stage. Donald Trump has sought to tilt US policy toward Russia, while at times warning strongly against China. In contrast, Congress and many alarmed by the way Russia interfered in the US presidential elections have sought to harden policy against it, while in some cases prioritizing more incentives for China to do ..

Gilbert Rozman
alliance building , axis of convenience , Donald Trump , national identities , Strategic Triangle , Vladmir Putin , Xi Jinping
August 30,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2017)

Trump’s shadow hung heavily over summer developments in East Asia, as covered in Japan’s media. There was talk of US isolation, retreat in leadership, and failure in managing North Korea. Yomiuri on July 31 cited press accounts abroad without any heartening news for the Japanese public; explanations ranged beyond Trump to the broader US society—inequality, cultural despondency,..

Editorial Staff
ARF , comfort women , Donald Trump , history war , Kono Taro , Senkaku Islands , South China Sea
August 22,2017 Open Forum

Mongolia’s Shrinking Foreign Policy Space

More than a quarter of a century has passed since Mongolia broke free of Soviet tutelage and set out to chart an independent course in foreign policy. Given the country’s staggering geopolitical handicap—the inescapable embrace of Russia to the north and China to the south—Mongolia has done remarkably well. Playing China against Russia and the other way around, Ulaanbaatar has so f..

Sergey Radchenko
Dalai Lama , Khaltmaagiin Battulga , Miegombyn Enkhbold , OBOR , resource nationalism , Vladmir Putin , Xi Jinping
August 21,2017 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (July 2017)

The divide over Russia’s Asian policies came into the open and sharpened as hopes for Trump changing US policy have been dashed and Putin’s prominent role at the Belt and Road Initiative summit failed to yield tangible benefits. The mainstream view calls for staying the course, tweaking the label from “Turn to the East” to “Greater Eurasia” while rejectin..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
Eurasian Economic Union , Greater Eurasia , OBOR , SCO , Silk Road Economic Belt , THAAD , turn to the East
August 17,2017 Open Forum

The Strange Rapprochement: Russian Military Pressure Tactics on the Northern Territories Issue

For the past several years, Japanese diplomacy has paid great attention to relations with Russia. After the second Abe cabinet was established in 2012, beginning with his visit to Russia in April 2013, Prime Minister Abe adopted positive diplomacy toward Russia, realizing as many as 18 summits by the time of the July 2017 G20 sidelines meeting with President Putin. This is the greatest number..

Koizumi Yu
1956 Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration , Japan-US Security Treaty , Northern Territories , Senkaku Islands , Southern Kuriles
July 03,2017 Open Forum

Japan’s Feelings of Marginalization in Spring 2017 and the US Factor

At this time of extraordinary flux, for some, Japan looms as an embodiment of stability and sound realist judgment. For others, it remains mired in the post-Cold War trap: stagnation without serious reform, revisionist obsessions without moves toward genuine reconciliation, and insularity without timely internationalization. In this article, I avoid these extremes to concentrate on the short-..

Gilbert Rozman
Abe-Trump summit , BRI , Moon-Trump summit , TPP , Trump-Xi Summit , US-Japan alliance