June 26,2020 Open Forum

Three Spikes and You Are Out? China-DPRK Relations after the Cold War and the US

Exchanges of visits between Chinese and DPRK leaders and high-level delegations have been relatively rare since the end of the Cold War. However, meetings between leaders saw three abnormal peaks in 1999-2001, 2010-2012, and 2018-2019. If after the Cold War the bilateral relationship cooled, room was left for China’s leaders to respond to changes in the Sino-US relationship, which repea..

Jiang Tianjiao
China-DPRK relations , China-US relations , COVID-19 , Denuclearization , Hanoi summit , Six-Party Talks
May 25,2020 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (May 2020)

One message stood apart in Russian coverage of international relations in the Indo-Pacific in the early spring of 2020: what is the impact of the pandemic on China and on Sino-US relations? In the background is the question: what will be the impact on Russian foreign policy? As for China, numerous questions are raised about its xenophobia, speed of recovery, political psychology, and altern..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Cold War , COVID-19 , Eurasian Economic Union , Wolf Warrior Diplomacy
May 09,2020 Open Forum

Kim Jong-un’s Recent Absence: A Viewpoint from North Korean Media Analysis

“CONFIDENTIAL AND URGENT STOP LORD COPPER HIMSELF GRAVELY DISSATISFIED STOP LORD COPPER PERSONALLY REQUIRES VICTORIES STOP ON RECEIPT OF THIS CABLE VICTORY STOP CONTINUE CABLING VICTORIES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE STOP... “They don’t seem very pleased with me in London. They seem to want more news.”1 The British writer Evelyn Waugh’s 1938 novel, Scoop, caricatures f..

Rachel Minyoung Lee
Kim Il-sung , Kim Jong-il , Kim Jong-un , Kim Yo-jong , media analysis
April 22,2020 Country Reports

Country Report: China (April 2020)

As 2020 began, Chinese authors were busy not only summing up the far-reaching results of 2019 but also putting them in broad analytical perspective. China’s other bilateral relations had slipped as a focus, secondary to the telling impact of the transformative core of the international order—the Sino-US nexus. Sino-Russian relations paled in significance. Relations with both Japan and..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Dong Jiaxin*)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Cold War , community of common destiny , COVID-19 , Six-Party Talks , Xi Jinping
March 23,2020 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (March 2020)

In February 2020, the South Korean government tackled the coronavirus outbreak, also known as COVID-19. Following the diagnosis of “patient 31” in Daegu, the virus spread rapidly, and Korea raised its alert to the highest level. South Korean media focused on 1) ROK-China diplomatic relations; 2) South Korea’s supply chain disruptions and economic dependence on China; and 3) ..

Yumi Ko
Coronavirus , COVID-19 , Korea-phobia , Special Measures Agreement , THAAD , Three nos
March 02,2020 Open Forum

Washington Insights, Vol. 8, No. 1

The coronavirus originating in Wuhan cast a dark shadow on efforts to look ahead in East Asia. It kept China at the center of attention, while only reinforcing the tendency to analyze events through the prism of Sino-US relations. While some kept their sights on Russia and India in this context—embracing a forward-looking great power perspective—others took a more targeted, triangular a..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Coronavirus , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , THAAD , Tokyo Olympics
February 06,2020 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (February 2020)

Ahead of Xi Jinping’s anticipated visit in spring, one might have expected Japan to be in an upbeat mood toward China, as was the case in advance of Vladimir Putin’s visit in 2016. As in the spate of articles on Russia at that time, the heavy coverage of North Korea early this year, and of South Korea in July to October of this year, China drew intense scrutiny, but it was rarely ..

Editorial Staff
"Belt and Road" Initiative , "Hate Korea” , China-Japan-ROK summit , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , RCEP , Tsai Ing-wen
January 23,2020 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (January 2020)

In December 2019, tensions increased on the Korean Peninsula as North Korea’s self-imposed year-end deadline approached. North Korea conducted two rocket engine tests at Tongchang-ri to pressure the US while Kim signaled through his horseback ride at Mount Paektu that he may unveil his “new path.” In response, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss Nort..

Yumi Ko
byungjin policy , GSOMIA , Moon-Xi summit , Mount Paektu , Strait of Hormuz , US-ROK alliance
January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Several developments since October threaten the current engagement cycle with Pyongyang. North Korea has warned the United States of an ominous “Christmas gift.”1 It has conducted two “very important” missile-related tests in Sohae.2 It has vowed to demolish South Korean facilities in Mount Kumgang.3 It has ignored US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun’s plea ..

Brian Kim
GSOMIA , Mount Kumkang , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , Worker’s Party
January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

2019, which began with high hopes for progress in nuclear talks, is coming to an end amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Contrary to expectations, there was no “Christmas surprise” from North Korea. However, North Korea’s state-run media reported on December 22 that Chairman Kim held an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission of the North’s ru..

Jina Kim
ICBM , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance , wartime operational control , Worker’s Party