January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario II

Several developments since October threaten the current engagement cycle with Pyongyang. North Korea has warned the United States of an ominous “Christmas gift.”1 It has conducted two “very important” missile-related tests in Sohae.2 It has vowed to demolish South Korean facilities in Mount Kumgang.3 It has ignored US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun’s plea ..

Brian Kim
GSOMIA , Mount Kumkang , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , Worker’s Party
January 04,2020 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario II

2019, which began with high hopes for progress in nuclear talks, is coming to an end amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Contrary to expectations, there was no “Christmas surprise” from North Korea. However, North Korea’s state-run media reported on December 22 that Chairman Kim held an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission of the North’s ru..

Jina Kim
ICBM , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance , wartime operational control , Worker’s Party
December 09,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: South Korea (November 2019)

Through the fall, Seoul’s relationship with Tokyo has been at its nadir, but relations with both Pyongyang and Washington have also been deeply troubled. While conservative and progressive articles and commentators have differed in their recommendations, neither found much basis for hope. Under pressure, concessions have been made and perceived as responses to desperation. Fear persiste..

Kim Kimberly
CVID , GSOMIA , Mount Geumgang , Pyongyang Declaration , Special Measures Agreement , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance
December 02,2019 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (November 2019)

China was on Russian minds the most, relegating the Korean Peninsula to second among Asian interests. On the one hand, Putin’s announcement of Russia transferring its missile defense apparatus to China set the tone for optimistic pronouncements of an upgrading of strategic relations, even if the term “alliance” was not in the official lexicon. Some foresaw an alliance, eve..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
"Belt and Road" Initiative , Eastern Economic Forum , Force of Siberia , free and open Indo-Pacific , INF Treaty , Nuclear non-proliferation , turn to the East
October 31,2019 Open Forum

Asian Missiles on the March

In his Asian tour in August, US defense secretary Mark Esper said that he would like to deploy new ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles in Asia as soon as possible. That same month, the Pentagon conducted its first test of such a missile since the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, banning such weapons, expired in August. Many Asian states have also been enhancing th..

Richard Weitz
anti-access/area denial , GSOMIA , INF Treaty , New START Treaty , No First Use policy , THAAD
October 28,2019 Alternative Scenarios

Positive Scenario I

Recently, North Korea broke off working-level nuclear talks with the United States hours after they began in Stockholm.1 Kim Myong-gil, the chief North Korean negotiator, placed the blame entirely on American officials for coming “empty-handed.”2 Observers may be quick to conclude that this is a diplomatic déjà vu in the making: North Korea manufactures a crisis and pleads for san..

Brian Kim
GSOMIA , Kaesong Industrial Complex , Korean War , Mount Kumkang , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK alliance
October 28,2019 Alternative Scenarios

Negative Scenario I

The working-level talks between the US and North Korea in Stockholm on October 4 and 5 fell apart after just one day. It was anticipated that the meeting would end without any significant result for two reasons. First, North Korea committed to the meeting only when Chairman Kim, invited to an unscheduled meeting with President Trump at Panmunjom, had agreed to holding working-level talks soon...

Jina Kim
Hanoi summit , Korean War , New Year’s Address , Non-proliferation treaty , US-ROK alliance
October 23,2019 Open Forum

Synopsis: DC Exchanges on US-ROK Relations

The US-ROK relationship is overshadowing other interests in Washington regarding foreign policy in East Asia. The ongoing US-China trade war may appear more urgent, but in the absence of Chinese visitors defending Chinese position or US officials eager to explain the US position when Trump is prone to change it on short notice, exchanges have been rather limited. US-North Korean relations and..

Editorial Staff
“small deal” , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , inter-Korean summit , THAAD , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war
October 18,2019 Open Forum

Washington Insights, Vol. 7, No. 5

No topic stirred as much interest in DC think tanks as the US-Japan-South Korean triangle. In the background loomed North Korea, leading to overlapping interest in the Sino-North Korean-US triangle. The driving force remained Donald Trump, keeping on edge US relations with each of the other three countries. Naturally, the latter triangle was seen also through the prism of Sino-US relations ..

Editorial Staff
Act East Policy , free and open Indo-Pacific , GSOMIA , New Southern Policy , Trump-Kim summit , US-China trade war , US-ROK alliance