August 23,2018 National Commentaries

An American (Non-Trumpian) Perspective on Asian Integration

With the long-standing failure of multilateral negotiations in the World Trade Organization and the recent US retreat to economic nationalism and “America First,” Asian trade and investment liberalization and regional integration are increasingly where the action is for global economic advances. This reality is illustrated by three moving targets: the completion and expansion of t..

Claude Barfield
CPTPP , FTAs , Indo-Pacific strategy , RCEP
August 21,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: China (April 2018)

China’s foreign relations are under extraordinary flux. Sino-US relations are viewed as more perilous than at any time since 1989 with some even going further back to 1979 or 1972. The often-troubled Sino-Japanese relationship has suddenly appeared to stabilize, as long-sought summits by Japan are presumed to be on track. The Sino-North Korean relationship abruptly normalized, leading t..

Gilbert Rozman
Act East Policy , BRI , Indo-Pacific strategy , inter-Korean summit , Quad , South China Sea , THAAD
August 07,2018 Open Forum

Unwilling Bystander: Japan Befuddled Strategically in 2018

Compared to “shocks” in 1971-72 and 1987-89, when US policy shifted abruptly toward first China and then the Soviet Union, the shock of 2018 from the US shift toward North Korea is proving even more unsettling. It is seen as leaving Japan at greater risk, more seriously putting the alliance in jeopardy, and raising more profound alarm about the geopolitical logic behind the move. ..

Gilbert Rozman
CJK summit , CVID , maximum pressure , Moon-Kim summit , Trump-Kim summit , US-ROK military exercises
August 07,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: Japan (August 2018)

As Donald Trump wreaked havoc in international relations, confusing friend with foe, Japan was not at all immune. Unlike European allies, it was left essentially to fend for itself—with no clear partner. Japanese media registered concern, then alarm, and finally a degree of resignation. The late spring and early summer of 2018—when Trump left Abe and others aghast at the G7, made extravag..

Editorial Staff
BRI , CJK summit , comfort women , Senkaku Islands , TPP-11 , trade war , Trump-Kim summit
July 24,2018 Country Reports

Country Report: Russia (July 2018)

Zero-sum reasoning prevailed in Russian writings. The United States is the enemy, and it must be weakened, which authors take satisfaction is happening. A contradictory approach to Trump is apparent: he is fighting valiantly against vested US interests, but his actions are contributing to a rapid decline in US influence. Optimism for Russia centers on its prospects for filling some of the v..

Editorial Staff (with the assistance of Olga Puzanova)
AIIB , BRI , CVID , EEU , Khasan-Rajin railway , SCO , Trump-Kim summit
July 19,2018 Open Forum

Balancing China & Transcending Pax-Americana: India and Japan as Emerging Strategic Bookends

In late May 2018, the Japanese press announced that Japan’s Self-Defense Forces are finalizing plans to conduct counter-terrorism exercises with the Indian army in the northeast part of India later in the year1—the first overseas combat training exercise of its kind for the traditionally homebound Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF). In July 2017, an India-Japan agreement for cooperation..

Thomas F. Lynch III
Act East Policy , Confluence of the two seas , Indo-Pacific , Look East , Malabar exercise , nonalignment strategy
July 02,2018 National Commentaries

Opening a Strategic Pandora’s Jar? US-China Uncertainties and the Three Wandering Genies in Southeast Asia

Uncertainty is nothing new in US-China relations. Indeed, it is a constant feature of all big power relationships. However, recent US-China interactions under Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have heightened uncertainties at multiple fronts, with an intensity that increasingly pushes the US allies and partners around Asia—including those in Southeast Asia—to reassess their fundamental outlooks..

Kuik Cheng-Chwee*
BRI , Doklam , free and open Indo-Pacific , G7 , Quad , RIMPAC , SCO
June 30,2018 Special Forum

Introduction

On June 12 when Donald Trump met in Singapore with Kim Jong-un, the other four countries in the earlier Six-Party Talks faced a new diplomatic environment, not only with North Korea, but also with the United States. Anticipating since March a tectonic shift in the framework for this region, especially in contrast to the alarming security concerns of 2017, these countries found themselves in..

Gilbert Rozman
Moon-Kim summit , Singapore Statement , Trump-Kim summit , Xi-Kim summit
June 29,2018 Special Forum

US-Japan Relations

In the aftermath of the June 8-9 G7 summit in Charlevoix, Canada, which collapsed under the weight of President Donald Trump’s tariff tantrum, a photograph circulated—courtesy of German chancellor Angela Merkel’s twitter account—that captured the mood of the meeting.1 In the picture, Trump is seated, arms crossed, gazing placidly ahead, as European leaders, Merkel most closely,..

Brad Glosserman
CPTPP , free and open Indo-Pacific , Japan passing , Singapore Statement , Trump-Kim summit , US-Japan alliance